I know this is off topic, but I wanted to share my thoughts on Jeremy Lin since he is about the only topic being discussed in sports media (the percentage of the media coverage is similar to the Super Bowl and Tebow-mania, while they were at their respective peaks). Before I get into my thoughts I want to comment on some of the reasons for all of the coverage he has received:
-There’s nothing else going on in the sports world: Football just ended so we have basketball and hockey, the popular sports media doesn’t do much at all with hockey other than show highlight goals and fights, with basketball there are games going being played, but we are past the opening couple weeks of excitement and not yet to the playoff chase. Additionally the hysteria of following the Miami Heat and every win or loss has thankfully passed from last year. I think this is one of the most underrated reasons why Lin has received so much attention: there’s just not a lot to show highlights of or for the talking heads to yell about.
-He’s of Asian dissent and he went to Harvard: I grouped these together because I think they are factors but not as big reasons as some are saying. He’s achievements so far would have been the most interesting thing to talk about even if was white or black and from a not Ivy League school, because there’s nothing else as interested to talk about and what he has done is truly remarkable.
-He’s playing in New York: Similar to the last item, yes this is a factor, but with TV, cable, the internet, social media, he could have done the same things in New Orleans, Oklahoma City, or Charlotte (home to a truly terrible team), and still gotten TONS of attention because it’s so much easier to follow sports than it was 20-30 years ago when most people followed sports only through local tv and the newspaper.
-It’s an awesome story of the underdog rising up: This is one of the things American’s like the most: David vs Goliath with David winning. It goes hand in hand with the American perspective that you can do anything with hard work and the opportunity. If he was a top draft pick or had put up huge numbers the attention that he’s getting would only be a fraction of what it would be if people thought he was going to be really good, or even might be really good. I think this is the biggest factor in why this has become such a big story.
-The stats he’s put up are truly remarkable for someone in their first few starts: They really and truly are, any time you are on top of the list for most points scored in your first four starts (in the last 40 years) that is really something, and not to mention the company he’s in: Michael Jordan, Allen Iverson, and Shaquille O’neil where the other three guys below him on the list (not bad company).
Now on to the really interesting part: where does Jeremy Lin go from here?
Is he going to continue to score 24 points per game like he has over the last 7 games? NO!!, this isn’t necessarily because he couldn’t, but he’s a point guard and point guards (even scoring point guards rarely score that much, the only one that I can think in the last 20 years or so was Derrick Rose last year scoring 25). He also doesn’t seem like someone that’s trying to score a bunch, one big factor for why he’s scoring so much now is that until Amare Stoudemire came back two games ago he probably didn’t have an above average scorer playing with him. So scoring wasn’t as much of a choice but a necessity.
But do I think he’s going to be REALLY good? Yes I think he’s probably be a borderline All-Star (as long as he’s playing for Mike D’Antoni, where he’s in a very point guard friendly system and allowed to play the way he has).
Why I think this:
-He’s been able to score consistently, even when other teams know he’s the Knick’s primary option, he shoots a high percentage, for his career he’s a 46% shooter, and shot about 50% (which for a guard is really good, no matter what conference you’re in).
-Assists don’t grow on trees: averaging 9 assists per game for 7 games is quite an accomplishment. You can score a bunch of points by just jacking up shots.
-He’s not 5’10”: he’s not a little guy who you can do certain things to and take him out of the game, or that he’s going to have a terrible time dealing with bigger point guards, he IS one of the bigger point guards.
-Guys look like they enjoy playing with him. Maybe not the most important factor, but certainly a big deal for a point guard.
-He looks like he belongs. His shots don’t look like they were lucky to go in, his highlights aren’t lucky: he made a good play to get in position to take a good shot (it might not go in every time, but they’ll go in pretty regularly).
My biggest concerns:
-Turnovers: he’s averaed over 5 turnovers a game in the last 7. . . that’s A LOT, will he cut down on that some? Probably, but my guess is even if he does he’s still going to have a bunch, but at least as long as he’s with D’Antoni I don’t think he’ll have too big of an issue with it.
-Carmelo Anthony: How does Carmelo react when he comes back and isn’t the number one attraction any more? Does he sulk and be a black hole for the basketball (see Denver last year, for what thing could go wrong) or does he say. . . “Hey this is awesome, I finally have a point guard that can move the ball around and get me good quality shots, and all I’ll have to do is keep the ball moving.” I think it’s about 50/50 how this part works out, then what happens? Do they trade Carmelo, fire D’Antoni, or something else?
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